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Washington Forest Futures: Timber Supply and Forest Structure Study PDF
This study will update projections developed in prior timber
supply studies (1990 Westside; 1992 eastside). We will provide
potential ranges of future harvests, log supplies, and representative
ecological measures, including selected habitat indices, for five
timbersheds on the Westside and two on the Eastside, highlighting
owner group differences. We will subcategorize upland and riparian
zone data where treatments differ, but the data samples will not
be sufficient to provide spatial insights within the zones and
regions. We will analyze and show how harvest-level declines below
prior projections have affected the forest inventory and forest
sector economics. The study will provide insight on past and prospective
forest management changes impacting regional economics, forest
health, and forest structure important to at-risk habitat and other
public values.
Methodology:
Initial forest inventory data will
be based on the Forest Inventory and Analysis survey of state,
federal and private plots, and supplementary inventory data available
for tribes and some other owners. We will update inventory data
based on remote sensing information and historical forest practice
applications and scale them to represent each owner and timbershed,
including relative impacts of land use change trends. Riparian
buffer impacts will be developed for required stream protection
based on GIS hydrological information. Timber growth and yield
analysis will be calibrated to updated UW Stand
Management Cooperative growth and yield information. UW’s Landscape
Management System (LMS) will provide tree-by-tree stand data projections that will
link to habitat and biodiversity, carbon, and economic measures.
Projections from each treatment will be scaled to represent owner-specific
intentions. LMS simulations will link direct and indirect employment
as well as Eastside fire and insect risk.
Primary and secondary
processing economic impacts will be based on diameter- and treatment-sensitive
harvest costs and optimal bucking of harvested trees into various
log grades. An overlay of biomass for potential biofuel conversion
will be developed as an incentive to cover costs. In addition to
developing a baseline scenario and a range of alternative futures,
we will use sensitivity analyses to demonstrate cause and effect
relationships and economic tradeoffs associated with increased
carbon, reduced fire risk, or other ecological attributes. We will
use case studies to supplement the regional information and characterize
variations in impacts, particularly among small owners.
Anticipated
Outputs per Decade:
We will show, by East, West, and statewide
regions; by upland and riparian land classes; by ownership (state,
federal, industry, other private, and tribal); and by economic
and ecological region aggregations:
- Harvest by diameter
class.
- Harvest cost, harvest revenue and management cost.
- Acres
treated over time.
- SEV, Total Forest Value, and cash flow
for disparate owners.
- Rural jobs, direct and indirect.
- Estimated
state, local, and federal tax receipts.
- Stand structure
differentiation driving habitat suitability measures.
- Carbon
in forest, products, biofuel and displaced fossil energy from
products and biofuel.
- Stand visualizations for aesthetics of landscape
and stand level treatments.
- Costs of alternative levels
of improved habitat and other ecological functions.
Contact:
Professor Bruce
Lippke (206) 543-8684
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